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Is Italy too big to fail?
Is Italy really limbering up for a rejection of the Euro and a return to the lira, or just bluffing? The narrative would appear to be, that if the ECB won’t bail out the Italian banks with fresh Euros, then Italy should do it itself by returning to the Lira. Whether the threat cuts much […]
Continue readingWhat equity valuations might be trying to tell you!
Hang on, according to the ‘experts’, this wasn’t supposed to happen! Having been fed a diet of gloom by everyone from Hedgies (Bridgewater), Academics/Economists (Dartmouth/MITI/Krugman), Banks (Citi) and wealthy investors (Mark Cuban – see end for links) should Trump get elected, markets have done what they do best and confound the experts, with US equity […]
Continue readingGartner Inc follow-up as US jobs data confirms softening trend for Info segment
Last month I flagged a warning on Gartner Inc. Consensus forecasts for a sustained rate of revenue growth over the next two years are clearly wrong. The question is whether they are too high or too low. In the blog piece on the subject I highlighted the correlation of the group’s organic revenue record to […]
Continue readingIf rates rise, it won’t have anything to do with the US jobs data
It’s the first Friday of the month again and I’ve woken to Punxsutawney Phil and predictions of imminent interest rate increases following the traditional release of the US non-farm payroll numbers; this time for November. Notwithstanding these are probably even less meaningful than normal given the Presidential elections at the beginning of the month it […]
Continue readingSeasonal adjustments salvage what would have been a dire October non-farm payroll number
Think +142k in October for Private sector jobs was poor? How would you feel about +37k then? Unlike in some countries, the US government would never stoop so low as bend some piece of economic data to gain a political advantage ahead of an election. The recovery in Q3 GDP to +2.9% (‘real’) trumpeted a […]
Continue readingUS Agency revenue growth plummets in Q3 – the canary in the mine
With less than a week to go and Trump edging ahead in some polls, albeit possibly still behind with regards electoral college votes, there’s going to be some sweaty palms in financial markets. A month ago, a Clinton victory may have seemed like a slam dunk and indeed one bookie (Paddy Power Betfair) was reported […]
Continue readingUS Q3 GDP bounce exaggerated by soyabeans and deflator
Q3 US GDP was “better than expected” at +2.9% and according to Capital Economics, “confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost with last year” and ..”As such leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise interest rates in December” Well there you have it, the consensus view from economists! […]
Continue readingUS reported Federal deficit of -$587bn dwarfed by cash deficit of over -$1.4tn
If you haven’t noticed, there is an entire industry of well funded professional spin doctors out there whose business is to present their clients performance in the very best possible light. Whether those clients are corporates trying to game an advantageous cost of capital or a Government claiming to be able to walk on economic […]
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