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April Non-farm payrolls: how to turn +76k jobs into +194k
This is feeling like Groundhog day. Another monthly jobs report by the Dept of Labor showing strong employment growth and triggering a wall of narrative from the markets proclaiming the next rate rise like the second coming, but another conclusion based on what Trump might describe as ‘fake news’. Were those who predicted April MoM […]
Continue readingWhen you need to believe the ‘crazies’ are in control
Management by chaos . Did anyone seriously believe that Trump would be able to get his ambitious stimulus plan through Congress if the economy was chugging along nicely as Yellen was continuing to portray? It was almost as implausible as expecting the EU to offer a painless Brexit for the UK while they remain convinced we […]
Continue readingExpect relief rally on a probable Macron win, but beware the implications of the forthcoming UK election in June
French Presidential elections are stacked against the extremes, as was the intention. Round one provides the electorate with the illusion of choice as they favour their particular candidate. By round two however, the vote is more likely cast with a view to exclude their least favoured candidate. As long as one centrist candidate can get […]
Continue readingNow you’ve been distracted, here’s the real US monthly job growth numbers
Gosh, with so much excitement going on in the world between the bombs, missile strikes and false flags it was easy to miss last week’s US non-farm payroll release for March. Not that one would have missed much. Having delivered its much anticipated second rate increase in the current tightening cycle, the Fed no longer […]
Continue readingEnd of cycle warnings for marketing services
How many leading marketers know what return they’re getting on their marketing investment? From P&G marketing honcho, Marc Pritchard’s gripes about poor transparency and accountability and a “crappy media chain”, one might surmise not many. If you can’t trust the data on who is being reached, any resulting ROI calculation derived from it is therefore […]
Continue readingPOTUS missile attack on Syria – more Kabuki theatre than prelude to WW3
Markets attempt to discount the future, which for the present often means trying to anticipate what the new POTUS is up to. Unfortunately, when he is failing to deliver what he promised (Healthcare and tax reform), but doing what he explicitly said he wouldn’t (bombing Syria) one might be forgiven for wanting to move into […]
Continue readingTrump and hot air lift February US jobs data – but will this be enough to justify a rate rise?
Does anyone not expect a March rate increase? After raising its Q1 GDP estimate from +3.09% to +3.19%, the +227k net private sector job adds reported in yesterday’s non-farm payroll data for February (after the +298k already reported mid-week by ADP), coming after similarly buoyant data released for January, the Fed seems to be setting […]
Continue readingJanuary beat for US non-farm payrolls – or did they?
Don’t you just love it? Every month the financial community analyses the eagerly awaited US non-farm payroll numbers and impresses us all with their reading of the state of the economy and the next potential move in interest rates and therefore life as we know it. Of course for particularly sophisticated algo funds all this […]
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