Category Archives for "Economics"

US state tax receipts fall by -2.2%; hardly a prelude for a Fed rate increase!

Sometimes the ‘facts’ are difficult to reconcile, particularly when these are government statistics. For Yellen this has included maintaining the fiction that all is well with the US economic recovery, but not so good that the Fed should take its foot off the monetary accelerator.  Along with other market commentators we monitor the monthly data […]

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Do central banks see a problem with Barrick?

There is something rather ironic about Central Banks using deflation as an excuse to print cash which is then used to buy gold shares, which are of course a leveraged play on rising gold prices which in turn are a reflection of the lack of confidence in central bank monetary policies.  For the Swiss CB […]

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Market crash? – depends who blinks first

Although the GrowthRater is a relative engine to establish stock valuation and risk relative to to broader market equity returns, that doesn’t mean we aren’t keenly aware of what these are, or might become, it is just that we do not impose our view on whether this is good or bad on the investment process. […]

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Auto & jobs slowdown in August – another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates!

Another month of hints about imminent interest rate increases by Yellen and the Fed leak machine and we are probably no closer to an actual rate increase. At least in July we had another relatively firm private sector job creation and US auto sales to suggest that the super-low rate environment was well past its […]

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US employment data for July – rate fears over-done (again)

Another month and another non-farm payroll number for markets to chew on. After what is now looking to be an abnormal data point for May, private sector employment growth has now posted a second month of gains at over 200k. Stretch this out over a year and we are still talking an average monthly increase […]

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Is it a surprise that most investors lose money when they are relying on a flawed metric?

Confused? Don’t worry, because you’re supposed to be.  That way you can be sold a metric that has been anointed as the approved currency by which you are meant to determine the value of the goods or services being transacted.  The fact that this currency may be flawed is fairly immaterial because it’s good for […]

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June US non-farm payrolls beat expectations! But did they?

Another month and another non-farm payroll number to interpret. Before you start to worry that the ‘better than expected’ MoM increase in private sector employment growth of +265k is going to accelerate the Fed’s interest rate tightening schedule, don’t. As usual, the numbers are open to interpretation as well as substantial revisions.   The May […]

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Currency winners and losers after Brexit

The second quarter has now closed and after some fairly volatile currency movements in the closing week, it is a good point to take stock of the potential impacts to company forecasts.   As markets should be already aware, Sterling reporting groups will benefit from a not insignificant fx translation tailwind from the Q3 on […]

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