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Adjustments to seasonal adjustments ‘add’ +101k jobs to December’s reported non-farm payroll figure
+144k net private sector job additions in December may a little below the trend, but with the previous two months revised up by +53k, this is probably where most of the headlines will stop, although Fed diehards may also point to the further rise in average hourly wages to a ten year high of +2.9% […]
Continue readingGold & Gold miners – when to buy and how to value
The gold price might be troublesome to predict, but at least the relationship between this and the share price of gold miners such as Barrick are proving to be more reliable. Back in July when I initiated coverage, I suggested markets were applying what seemed to be a ridiculously simple valuation methodology. Forget IRR with […]
Continue readingFed rate rise – Cui Bono?
After raising its Federal funds target range to 0.25-0.5% in December 2015, Yellen has waited exactly a year and now edged up rates a further +25bps as the target range is raised to 0.5-0.75%, while also signalling that these could rise to around 1.4% by the end of 2017, thereby suggesting three further +25bps increases […]
Continue readingIs Italy too big to fail?
Is Italy really limbering up for a rejection of the Euro and a return to the lira, or just bluffing? The narrative would appear to be, that if the ECB won’t bail out the Italian banks with fresh Euros, then Italy should do it itself by returning to the Lira. Whether the threat cuts much […]
Continue readingWhat equity valuations might be trying to tell you!
Hang on, according to the ‘experts’, this wasn’t supposed to happen! Having been fed a diet of gloom by everyone from Hedgies (Bridgewater), Academics/Economists (Dartmouth/MITI/Krugman), Banks (Citi) and wealthy investors (Mark Cuban – see end for links) should Trump get elected, markets have done what they do best and confound the experts, with US equity […]
Continue readingGartner Inc follow-up as US jobs data confirms softening trend for Info segment
Last month I flagged a warning on Gartner Inc. Consensus forecasts for a sustained rate of revenue growth over the next two years are clearly wrong. The question is whether they are too high or too low. In the blog piece on the subject I highlighted the correlation of the group’s organic revenue record to […]
Continue readingIf rates rise, it won’t have anything to do with the US jobs data
It’s the first Friday of the month again and I’ve woken to Punxsutawney Phil and predictions of imminent interest rate increases following the traditional release of the US non-farm payroll numbers; this time for November. Notwithstanding these are probably even less meaningful than normal given the Presidential elections at the beginning of the month it […]
Continue readingSeasonal adjustments salvage what would have been a dire October non-farm payroll number
Think +142k in October for Private sector jobs was poor? How would you feel about +37k then? Unlike in some countries, the US government would never stoop so low as bend some piece of economic data to gain a political advantage ahead of an election. The recovery in Q3 GDP to +2.9% (‘real’) trumpeted a […]
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