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What if?
The progression of the Wuhan ‘lab leak’ hypothesis from conspiracy theory to mainstream consensus provides a salutary lesson not to accept an already implausible narrative because powerful vested interests would rather you did. So consider this and the potential ramifications. What if the S Spike protein is the pathogen responsible for platelets to clump and […]
Continue readingHear anything?
“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated,” Chuck Prince (former Citi CEO) said in 2007. “But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” . UK house prices are up another +10.9% according to the Nationwide and stock indices the […]
Continue readingMiddleby gets stitched up like a kipper!
Nil premium mergers are tough to complete, particularly when a stretched balance sheet forces it to be funded with equity at a time when debt is cheap. This is due to the target company exposing itself as up for sale, but unable to offer its shareholders a control premium beyond some nebulous longer term shared […]
Continue readingLab-leak hypothesis – and the next shoe to drop?
Investing can sometimes feel like quantum physics, where there is no reality, but just a probability of outcomes. While valuing a potentially miss-priced asset on an existing consensus perception of reality is one challenge, this is a mere entree to the broader problem that the future is unlikely to pan out as per the current […]
Continue readingThe shape of things to come?
This QuickTake by Bloomberg video drive-thru of Wuhan paints an eeerily post-apocalyptic image that might be straight out of Twelve Monkeys or The Omega Man. My first reaction was to avoid any stock that needs to bring people together (restaurants, cinemas, airlines, event organisers, hotels etc) as the public reaction to this coronavirus is clearly […]
Continue readingRepo fixed – really?
Often referred to as the plumbing behind the financial markets, a better analogy for the US repo market would perhaps be as sausage making. That is because knowing how it’s made might deter one from having the confidence to consume it. With Federal Fund and repo rates both back down to within the Fed’s 1.50-1.75% […]
Continue readingChoices
“Everything is awesome” it seems for equities. An accommodating central bank, another goldilocks US jobs number, reducing trade tensions, de-escalating war drums in the Gulf and also reducing political risk as the US seems on track to follow the UK by keeping the fiscal crazies away from the government purse strings, when they go to […]
Continue readingThe cone of uncertainty
Yes, its ‘cone of uncertainty’ time again for hurricane watchers as Dorian ends up over 350 miles from where it was projected to be 5 days ago. Given that the 5 day margin of error on these forecasts appears to only around plus-or-minus 125 miles, this must temper President Trump’s relief that the current forecasts […]
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