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Trump and hot air lift February US jobs data – but will this be enough to justify a rate rise?
Does anyone not expect a March rate increase? After raising its Q1 GDP estimate from +3.09% to +3.19%, the +227k net private sector job adds reported in yesterday’s non-farm payroll data for February (after the +298k already reported mid-week by ADP), coming after similarly buoyant data released for January, the Fed seems to be setting […]
Continue readingThe most effective weapon in the war on terror – identity papers!
Yes folks, we live in the most heavily surveillanced times ever. Not only are our communications increasingly monitored, but almost every aspect of our lives from our movements, our associations and now with ‘smart phones’ and internet TV, the ability to snoop even on our private conversations. So when you unwrap that new gizmo, such […]
Continue readingIf rates rise, it won’t have anything to do with the US jobs data
It’s the first Friday of the month again and I’ve woken to Punxsutawney Phil and predictions of imminent interest rate increases following the traditional release of the US non-farm payroll numbers; this time for November. Notwithstanding these are probably even less meaningful than normal given the Presidential elections at the beginning of the month it […]
Continue readingMarket crash? – depends who blinks first
Although the GrowthRater is a relative engine to establish stock valuation and risk relative to to broader market equity returns, that doesn’t mean we aren’t keenly aware of what these are, or might become, it is just that we do not impose our view on whether this is good or bad on the investment process. […]
Continue readingAuto & jobs slowdown in August – another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates!
Another month of hints about imminent interest rate increases by Yellen and the Fed leak machine and we are probably no closer to an actual rate increase. At least in July we had another relatively firm private sector job creation and US auto sales to suggest that the super-low rate environment was well past its […]
Continue readingTurkey vexillum falsa – Cui bono?
Normally the Turkish military are quite efficient with their coups. This one however, looked surprisingly lame, with what seems only a tiny turnout and a complete failure to seize control of the media or airports. This enabled Erdogan to fly into Istanbul within a few hours and broadcast a rallying call to supporters on TV. […]
Continue readingBoris bounced from leadership race, but not buried
What was Michael Gove thinking when he knifed Boris? The man freely admits to having “no charisma”, yet having already dumped his previous friend ‘Dave’ Cameron, now thought he could also betray the man who had acted as torchbearer for the Leave campaign. Perhaps someone had whispered “Thane of Cawdor in his ear”. While Boris’s […]
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