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April Non-farm payrolls: how to turn +76k jobs into +194k
This is feeling like Groundhog day. Another monthly jobs report by the Dept of Labor showing strong employment growth and triggering a wall of narrative from the markets proclaiming the next rate rise like the second coming, but another conclusion based on what Trump might describe as ‘fake news’. Were those who predicted April MoM […]
Continue readingWhen you need to believe the ‘crazies’ are in control
Management by chaos . Did anyone seriously believe that Trump would be able to get his ambitious stimulus plan through Congress if the economy was chugging along nicely as Yellen was continuing to portray? It was almost as implausible as expecting the EU to offer a painless Brexit for the UK while they remain convinced we […]
Continue readingExpect relief rally on a probable Macron win, but beware the implications of the forthcoming UK election in June
French Presidential elections are stacked against the extremes, as was the intention. Round one provides the electorate with the illusion of choice as they favour their particular candidate. By round two however, the vote is more likely cast with a view to exclude their least favoured candidate. As long as one centrist candidate can get […]
Continue readingPOTUS missile attack on Syria – more Kabuki theatre than prelude to WW3
Markets attempt to discount the future, which for the present often means trying to anticipate what the new POTUS is up to. Unfortunately, when he is failing to deliver what he promised (Healthcare and tax reform), but doing what he explicitly said he wouldn’t (bombing Syria) one might be forgiven for wanting to move into […]
Continue readingTrump and hot air lift February US jobs data – but will this be enough to justify a rate rise?
Does anyone not expect a March rate increase? After raising its Q1 GDP estimate from +3.09% to +3.19%, the +227k net private sector job adds reported in yesterday’s non-farm payroll data for February (after the +298k already reported mid-week by ADP), coming after similarly buoyant data released for January, the Fed seems to be setting […]
Continue readingThe most effective weapon in the war on terror – identity papers!
Yes folks, we live in the most heavily surveillanced times ever. Not only are our communications increasingly monitored, but almost every aspect of our lives from our movements, our associations and now with ‘smart phones’ and internet TV, the ability to snoop even on our private conversations. So when you unwrap that new gizmo, such […]
Continue readingIf rates rise, it won’t have anything to do with the US jobs data
It’s the first Friday of the month again and I’ve woken to Punxsutawney Phil and predictions of imminent interest rate increases following the traditional release of the US non-farm payroll numbers; this time for November. Notwithstanding these are probably even less meaningful than normal given the Presidential elections at the beginning of the month it […]
Continue readingMarket crash? – depends who blinks first
Although the GrowthRater is a relative engine to establish stock valuation and risk relative to to broader market equity returns, that doesn’t mean we aren’t keenly aware of what these are, or might become, it is just that we do not impose our view on whether this is good or bad on the investment process. […]
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