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High stakes poker

Does anyone not yet understand that the game advertised and sold to voters/investors was never the real one being played? Sure, Trump may favour a return to fiscally responsible governance, but his lack of action here, much to the consternation of some in the MAGA camp, is because he has much bigger fish to fry […]

Another political distraction ahead of the Great Reset?

As political debate descends into the absurd, I am reminded that imitation is often regarded as the sincerest form of flattery; although the look adopted by Biden for his latest rant may have some uncomfortable antecedents. The late great Raul Julia seems to have aced the imagery in his last role as the deranged dictator […]

Curiouser and curiouser!

Will Trump go ‘full Boris’ after his brush with the ‘China virus’ and follow the Democrats with more lock-downs, or will it harden his resolve to get America back to work? Hopefully it will be the latter, as the pace of employment growth is already slowing and Pelosi’s foot-dragging on the stimulus bill will only […]

More fake statistics!

In war, the first casualty is often the truth. In the current pandemic and polarised political environment, this seems to be doubly so. Pre-existing conditions might be what kills you with COVID-19, but it is the pre-existing political bias and goal-seeking that is more alarming. Don’t expect the data to lead the narrative. Want Biden […]

1848?

BTFD or STFR depends on what game you think is really being played out there in markets. The recent bounce in equity prices on the apparent reversal in the Fed’s QT narrative together with an improving narrative on Chinese tariffs and now hopes for a reversal in Brexit, notwithstanding the resounding defeat of Theresa May’s […]

Dangerous Waters

These are dangerous waters for investors. Not just from the visible reefs, such as the rising trade and military tensions, but to what remains hidden, as Trump positions himself ahead of what could prove to be the most important mid-term elections for a generation. This is a game however, where many of the key pieces […]

Gone by May?

As a student of history, Putin is probably well aware of Napoleon’s maxim of “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”. The US, France and UK may well feel empowered this morning after attacking Syria with around $200m worth of missiles, but what have they achieved? The Syrian military has not been […]

Syrian Kabuki – follow the fleets, not the tweets

Have we given a lunatic the keys to the asylum? Donny ‘Two-Scoops’ recent Tweet on Syria might seem to suggest as much. Even if one were to ignore the playground language of a five year old, the contents were also deeply troubling on several levels. The first and foremost is that the Russians […]

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