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Something fishy with official US employment data
US residential construction can slightly lag private housing starts, but never to this extent. Either the US residential construction industry has become a lot less efficient (as in the ratio of employees needed to build the average house), or there’s something increasingly fishy with the official BIS employment data.
Continue readingA very odd recession!
Oh what a wonderful recession it is. Perhaps this is just the Sitzkreig before the real impacts are felt, but for now the stats from US employment data has yet to support the widespread news narrative of layoffs as the BLS reports US net private sector job growth approaching +400k in January. Maybe the fear […]
Continue readingUS employment data yet to support an early easing in monetary policy
We may be heading for a recession, but not one that is so far being flagged by current US employment or wage data. For those anticipating an early peaking of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, that therefore might come as a disappointment, as without a more pressing evidence of an already significant cooling […]
Continue readingJune employment data – enough to keep the various bull(S) spin machines fed
June’s US non-farm payroll numbers probably contain enough straws for punters to continue to spin a positive prognosis for markets. A further rise in monthly private sector jobs of +662k, suggests the US recovery is building, but the modest increase in average earnings, given these are focused on the lower paid and more transitory jobs […]
Continue readingUS jobs growth – more mixed signals
Weak net job growth, but high average hourly wage growth in February has been followed by an improved rate of net job growth in March, but a weaker pace of increase in average hourly wages. The earth-shattering conclusion from all this is perhaps not to extrapolate a single month’s data as it may just get […]
Continue readingUS employment data for July – rate fears over-done (again)
Another month and another non-farm payroll number for markets to chew on. After what is now looking to be an abnormal data point for May, private sector employment growth has now posted a second month of gains at over 200k. Stretch this out over a year and we are still talking an average monthly increase […]
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