US Non farm payrolls Archives

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Markets play chicken with the US Fed again

Markets are down as a sense of fear grips investors. That however, has less to do with a sudden re-evaluation of the economic outlook following the release of the US employment survey data for July and much more to do with a growing panic that the US Fed is resisting the pressure to be bounced […]

Curiouser and curiouser!

Will Trump go ‘full Boris’ after his brush with the ‘China virus’ and follow the Democrats with more lock-downs, or will it harden his resolve to get America back to work? Hopefully it will be the latter, as the pace of employment growth is already slowing and Pelosi’s foot-dragging on the stimulus bill will only […]

VE day jobs carnage

It didn’t come as a surprise, but perhaps it was fitting that the carnage in job markets would be confirmed on the 75th anniversary of VE day, as Western Governments achieve a level of economic collapse and authoritarian rule that the Nazi’s could only have dreamt of. 75 years ago our predecessors faced terrible odds […]

When governments panic

The -713k contraction in US private sector employment in March was as dire as expected, but after the approx +6.4m increase in initial unemployment claims already reported in the two weeks up to the 28th March, this represents merely an hors d’oeuvre to what is coming down the pipe, With only limited effective testing (including […]

US jobs growth – not ‘Yuge’, but good enough

Net private sector job adds in October of +131k, with average wages stabilising to +2.6% annualised and +3.0% YoY is about as close to a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario’ as one could reasonably expect in the current trade war. While perhaps disappointing for those hoping for further Fed easing, the October jobs data is not without its […]

US porridge cooling, but still far from congealed

Another month of easing net job additions, but this time without the support of higher wage growth. Normally, such a report would be positive for markets, in that while not signalling recession, it is limp enough to keep the Fed dovish. As we approach 2020 however, the narrative around these monthly reports will become increasingly […]

US job growth stalls – a more reliable indicator than initial GDP

Well, well, once again the monthly non-farm payroll numbers provide the insight on the real state of the US economy. As with 2008, forget the official GDP numbers, or at least the initial ones. Forget also the the spin from those with an interest to persuade you everything is dandy, particularly those encouraging you to […]

April US employment growth – Goldilocks

There seems to be a whole industry that has emerged to pore over the monthly US non-farm payroll numbers, but ultimately there are only two things of interest. Are US corporate sacking enough employees to signal an impending recession, or employing so many and paying so much as to spook the Fed into tightening monetary […]

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