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Boris bounced from leadership race, but not buried
What was Michael Gove thinking when he knifed Boris? The man freely admits to having “no charisma”, yet having already dumped his previous friend ‘Dave’ Cameron, now thought he could also betray the man who had acted as torchbearer for the Leave campaign. Perhaps someone had whispered “Thane of Cawdor in his ear”. While Boris’s […]
Continue readingRemember ‘Black Wednesday’? 3 stocks added to the GrowthRater model portfolio
‘Black Wednesday’ may have seemed pretty bleak at the time, but the over 12% decline in Sterling that accompanied our ejection from the ERM provided the stimulus to what subsequently became a boom that lasted to 2008. Looking at the carnage in the equity and fx markets immediately following the Brexit referendum result last Friday […]
Continue readingAuf Wiedersehen – pet (Brexit)
Amongst all the carnage of Brexit, something to lighten the mood. Rowan Atkinson singing the European Anthem. Like the real thing, it starts off well (once in the right key), but then descends into chaos.
Continue readingBrexit countdown – modelling a ‘what if’ using ITV as an example
Only four trading days to go before the Brexit vote, so if you believe the current polls are more accurate than for the Scottish referendum, you are probably already underweight or short Sterling, UK Banks and groups exposed to UK domestic consumption (advertising, retail, hotels & restaurants, property and even some German auto manufacturers etc) […]
Continue readingChina’s crude oil import surge being refined and exported rather than implying rising domestic demand
If unplanned outages from Canada and Nigeria (of approx -2mb/d) have provided the supply side contraction behind the rebound in crude prices, China’s PBOC credit injection of $1tn in Q1 has helped to deliver the demand side component, which along with ECB and BoJ NIRP, have also helped keep the record levels of global inventories […]
Continue readingOil stocks continue to reach beyond a $60/bbl oil price
Mr Micawber it seems is alive and well over at OPEC, where the last ‘do nothing’ meeting has ended in the warm glow of oil prices being up 80% since the last event (in Dec 2015), with the narrative of a market experiencing a net reduction in non-OPEC supply of approx -740k b/d against global […]
Continue readingMarkets get nervous on Ad Agencies ahead of long awaited ANA report on media kick-backs
Phantom menace It’s taken eight months, but is seems the Association of National Advertisers (ANA) is finally ready to release its eight month investigation into US media agency rebates. Its apparent pre-release briefing to a number of trade publications and newspapers suggests that it has uncovered ‘Non-Transparent’ practices, including claims that agencies are collecting media […]
Continue readingIs Mediaset Bollore’s next media target?
As the layers are peeled away, there is a shocker in the Mediaset numbers. This is the woefully low EBIT margins currently being delivered from the core Italian commercial TV activities. With its Mediaset Premium results for 2015 now finally revealed (yes and you only have to go to page 337 of Mediaset’s 2015 annual […]
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