- Home /
- Economics
Another non-farm payroll and another missed opportunity to normalise rates
“Silence”. That is what I hear after yesterday’s March US non-farm payroll figures. Even a few months ago, these data points, while flawed were eagerly awaited as harbingers of revisions in US Fed monetary policy. Not any more. After February’s decision to hold rates in what looks like a clumsy attempt to goose oil prices […]
Continue readingYellen chickens out – again!
So much for the Yellen’s promise to be “data dependent” in its interest rate policy! With core inflation above the Fed’s forecast range, unemployment well within its longer term target range and private sector job and average wage growth offering no rational support for maintaining the near zero interest rate environment, Yellen’s decision to hold […]
Continue reading“Beware the Ides of March” – FOMC rate increase more likely after February’s US jobs data
“And standing here tonight, I’m afraid that I don’t hear – a – thing. Just… silence. …” John Tuld – Margin Call We are approaching what may prove to be a formative FOMC meeting on 15-16 March. After earlier macro growth fears out of China and a widening cadre of central bankers going full retard with NIRP, there […]
Continue readingPreparing for a possible recession from end 2016
Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]
Continue readingUS dollar rise has further to go before the Fed will panic
After the equity market drubbing into the first week of 2016, attention was back on the Fed and whether an expected weak set of employment data for December might provide some political cover to forestall the next upward revision in interest rates possibly due in March. If the Fed holds rates however, it won’t be […]
Continue reading“It sure is a hell of a lot easier just being first” (John Tuld – Margin Call)
Has Yellen seen the movie Margin Call, I wonder? In it, Jeremy Iron’s classic Wall Street boss (John Tuld) referred to 3 ways of making a living: be first, be smarter, or cheat. Of course in financial markets these are not mutually exclusive options where Governments habitually use their central banks to operate their own […]
Continue readingWill the Fed finally enter rehab at its 15-16 December FOMC meeting?
Is the Fed that junkie that keeps on promising to kick the habit because they know the dire consequences if they don’t, but just want that last fix because it feels so good and they’re frightened of cold turkey? How many times has the Fed now signalled it will come off the QE juice but […]
Continue reading“It sure is a hell of a lot easier just being first” (John Tuld – Margin Call)
//youtu.be/ag14Ao_xO4c Has Yellen seen the movie Margin Call, I wonder? In it, Jeremy Iron’s classic Wall Street boss (John Tuld) referred to 3 ways of making a living: be first, be smarter, or cheat. Of course in financial markets these are not mutually exclusive options where Governments habitually use their central banks to operate […]
Continue reading