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Gartner Inc – Consensus forecasts in straight lines are usually wrong
Nature may abhor a straight line, but analyst forecasts don’t seem to, even when estimating revenues for a business with an historic margin of error on revenues of over +/-4ppts. I take a look at Gartner as consensus forecasts predict what its never achieved before, a straight run of revenue growth and into a slowing […]
Continue readingFacebook Q3 results: Shaking out the momentum traders, albeit still a little early for the deep value guys
It has a great model and enormous growth potential, but you’ll have to excuse my cynicism at the way revenues, margins and expectations were pumped up this year. (see my comment back in May after the Q1 results – http://growthrater.com/facebook-q1-beat-followed-controlling-shareholder-share-sale-ring-bells/#topbar_header) Having pushed higher yielding newsfeed-only advertising on mobile and saturated advertising loadings, we’ve […]
Continue readingeBay – Closing long position with gain of +30% (+28% relative: +60% annualised)
eBay long positioned closed at $31.9 ps to crystallise a >+30% absolute and +28% relative gain (vs the S&P500) since we added the stock to the GrowthRater portfolio, just over 5 months ago at $24.5 ps (http://growthrater.com/ebay-added-growthrater-model-portfolio-close-price-24-49/). Annualised, that represents a return of +65% on the trade and +60% on a relative basis against the […]
Continue readingFacebook: Q1 beat followed by controlling shareholder share sale – ring any bells?
Facebook shares had a good bounce on its blistering Q1 results which, oh so conveniently, accompanied its announcement of a stock split into new non-voting C class shares. This is a similar ploy the one Vere Rothermere used a few years ago with the DMGT scrip issue as a way of enabling him (well at […]
Continue readingeBay added to the GrowthRater model portfolio (close price $24.49)
It is comforting to see the group firm up the lower end of its constant fx revenue growth range for both Q2 and the FY16 after a better than expect outrun for Q1. The group however is not out of the woods just yet as the platform rejuvenation still needs to be completed and the […]
Continue readingSpinmeisters in an age of algorithmic trading
When over three quarters of equity trading volume is driven by algorithmic trading, who do you think company press releases are increasingly being written for? If you want your news item or blog to even get ranked you need to follow the SEO rules. If you want the algo bot that is going to decide […]
Continue readingYahoo drops its plan to spin-off its Alibaba stake – Oops!
After almost a year since announcing the planned spin-off of its remaining holding in Alibaba, Yahoo’s board of Directors “after careful review.. has unanimously decided to suspend work on the pending plan”. Tax reasons are cited for the volte-face, in that the IRS (as we reported only last week) were unimpressed by the whole scheme […]
Continue readingYahoo – last one to leave please turn off the lights!
So having failed to rejuvenate the core and divert attention to crystallising value from selling down the peripheral assets, Marissa Mayer and the Yahoo board are now left with the one last option, sell the rump. But with under $5bn of sales and barely profitable, what might it be worth and does the proposed spinoff […]
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