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A very odd recession!
Oh what a wonderful recession it is. Perhaps this is just the Sitzkreig before the real impacts are felt, but for now the stats from US employment data has yet to support the widespread news narrative of layoffs as the BLS reports US net private sector job growth approaching +400k in January. Maybe the fear […]
Continue readingWill the Fed repeat the mistakes of the 1970’s by easing too early?
Natural gas and oil prices are off their peaks, so unsurprisingly so are reported rates of inflation. These in turn have been driving both bond and equity markets since the end of December in anticipation that central banks will ease off the monetary easing and thereby help avoid a potential recession this year. All this […]
Continue readingUS employment data yet to support an early easing in monetary policy
We may be heading for a recession, but not one that is so far being flagged by current US employment or wage data. For those anticipating an early peaking of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, that therefore might come as a disappointment, as without a more pressing evidence of an already significant cooling […]
Continue readingAsset allocation for 2023 – first pick your macro scenario
Go into a car salesroom or estate agent (realtor) and ask if it’s a good time to buy and I think we all know what the answer would be. Why then should we be surprised at a similar response from those pushing ‘stawks’ and bonds for a living? Here, the year-end prognostications for 2023 from […]
Continue readingLife Insurance profitability ‘died suddenly’ from ’cause unknown’
Never in human history have governments spent so much and coerced so many in the name of health, yet achieved such adverse results. In year three of a virus with a lower mortality risk than for seasonal flu to all but the fat, old and already sick, not only are more people now dying, but […]
Continue readingEurope can’t take the pain, but ensuring more to come!
Amongst the plethora of distractions, many may have missed the truly seismic events over the last weeks of September. No, I don’t mean the rumblings under the Baltic and interdiction of Germany’s last hope for a warm winter, albeit this won’t help, but the answer to the big question that has overshadowed markets since central […]
Continue readingAnother political distraction ahead of the Great Reset?
As political debate descends into the absurd, I am reminded that imitation is often regarded as the sincerest form of flattery; although the look adopted by Biden for his latest rant may have some uncomfortable antecedents. The late great Raul Julia seems to have aced the imagery in his last role as the deranged dictator […]
Continue readingBond yields are rising, but more importantly normalising
Bond yields are rising, but perhaps more importantly, they are also normalising. Yields are rising, not because inflation rates are higher, but because of liquidity imbalances between borrowers and lenders. Where inflation fits into this process, is as a catalyst for returning the pricing of capital back to markets by removing the headroom of central […]
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