Non-farm payrolls Archives

Tag Archives for " Non-farm payrolls "

Another ‘conspiracy theory’ bites the dust?

After lies, damn lies and statistics, government ‘estimates’ such as the BIS’s monthly guesstimates for non-farm payrolls must rank as one of the more unreliable economic datasets, particularly in the run up to a quadrennial election year in the US. While also undermined by the debt fueled life support currently being administered by the incumbent […]

June US employment running warm, rather than hot – albeit a bit of a red herring for US Fed rates

If yesterday’s 10 year yield bounce to over 4% was a function of a more aggressive further interest rate rise by the Fed this month after the June ADP figures, then today’s cooler employment estimates for June from the BIS in its non-farm payroll figures may help dampen some of those fears. All this however, […]

Jobs data pain for impeachment obsessed Democrats

Without power, all that’s left is pointless political posturing. Markets therefore should be content to suck up some short term central bank profligacy if it can deliver more solid jobs and wages data, as we’ve seen in November’s non-farm payroll data. But then again, perhaps voters will want to take a risk on an increasingly […]

US August jobs – porridge tepid and cooling

Markets weren’t expecting much from the August non-farm employment data and they didn’t disappoint. While average wage growth remained solidly above +3%, the underlying rate of private sector job growth slipped back to an anaemic +64k, with +15k of this coming from temporary help. Although comfortably ahead of the level of contraction that would signal […]

Dangerous Waters

These are dangerous waters for investors. Not just from the visible reefs, such as the rising trade and military tensions, but to what remains hidden, as Trump positions himself ahead of what could prove to be the most important mid-term elections for a generation. This is a game however, where many of the key pieces […]

GDP driven rate increases in the US threatens to pummel an already challenged ECB QE policy

Equity markets were widely reported to have bounced on Friday after the solid May private sector job growth, albeit the accompanying rise in average hourly wage growth presages another rate rise by the Fed. With EU’s grip on its southern flank unravelling as friendly regimes in Spain and Italy are replaced however, the prospects of […]

“US Economy added only 148k jobs in December” …… Oh really?

A new year it may be, but don’t expect much improvement in the headline analysis of spurious government statistics. On Friday we had the December non-farm payroll figures. The headline net job additions was ‘only’ +148k in the month, which CNBC, the WSJ and other main media were quick to inform us was below the […]

Trump and hot air lift February US jobs data – but will this be enough to justify a rate rise?

Does anyone not expect a March rate increase? After raising its Q1 GDP estimate from +3.09% to +3.19%, the +227k net private sector job adds reported in yesterday’s non-farm payroll data for February (after the +298k already reported mid-week by ADP), coming after similarly buoyant data released for January, the Fed seems to be setting […]

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