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June employment data – enough to keep the various bull(S) spin machines fed
June’s US non-farm payroll numbers probably contain enough straws for punters to continue to spin a positive prognosis for markets. A further rise in monthly private sector jobs of +662k, suggests the US recovery is building, but the modest increase in average earnings, given these are focused on the lower paid and more transitory jobs […]
Continue readingGoldilocks, or just cognitive dissonance?
So 9 years after Mario Draghi salvaged markets with his infamous “Whatever it takes” promise by the ECB, his current counterpart at the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell is attempting to repeat the trick, with his testimony to US House of Representative this Monday (21st June) where he promised “We at the Fed will do […]
Continue readingGold slumps – forming a ‘Macron bottom’?
So what’s up with the Gold price, which has tumbled by approx -5% in less than 48 hours? While 10 year US treasury yields are barely changed, a falling gold price on a rising US dollar suggests the Fed may be forced kicking and screaming back onto a monetary tightening tack and this also seems […]
Continue readingWhat if?
The progression of the Wuhan ‘lab leak’ hypothesis from conspiracy theory to mainstream consensus provides a salutary lesson not to accept an already implausible narrative because powerful vested interests would rather you did. So consider this and the potential ramifications. What if the S Spike protein is the pathogen responsible for platelets to clump and […]
Continue readingLab-leak hypothesis – and the next shoe to drop?
Investing can sometimes feel like quantum physics, where there is no reality, but just a probability of outcomes. While valuing a potentially miss-priced asset on an existing consensus perception of reality is one challenge, this is a mere entree to the broader problem that the future is unlikely to pan out as per the current […]
Continue readingBattle for the Fed narrative
Oh it’s such fun to see the Fed being played, if not by the government, then by the banks! Now however, both interests are aligned in attempting to persuade Fed Chairman Powell to keep the monetary punch bowl well filled, or risk yet another market ‘hissy-fit’. Hence the management of expectations for an entirely unreasonable […]
Continue readingGood news now good news?
So is Good news now good for asset prices? For the last decade and particularly the last year however, its been more a case of multiple expansion driven by central bank/Govt money printing rather than rising returns that have been responsible for this asset inflation, so why would another month of robust growth in US […]
Continue readingProject Fear
“voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.” Change ‘pacifists’ […]
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