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June employment data – enough to keep the various bull(S) spin machines fed

June’s US non-farm payroll numbers probably contain enough straws for punters to continue to spin a positive prognosis for markets. A further rise in monthly private sector jobs of +662k, suggests the US recovery is building, but the modest increase in average earnings, given these are focused on the lower paid and more transitory jobs […]

Good news now good news?

So is Good news now good for asset prices? For the last decade and particularly the last year however, its been more a case of multiple expansion driven by central bank/Govt money printing rather than rising returns that have been responsible for this asset inflation, so why would another month of robust growth in US […]

Rising implied inflation heralds the end of the MMT party

“By My word and for the good of the state, The bearer has done what has been done.” Has WuFlu returned us to a fictional 17th century where any excess is permissible “for the good of the state”, but where accountability is as nebulous as the infamous ‘Carte Banche’? Looking at the unmitigated project fear […]

Investors start to challenge fiat markets for delivery

It should be fairly obvious that when supply exceeds demand, then prices will fall. Print more fiat cash than one is growing the economy and you’ll end up with currency debasement, even if initially governments and their central banks can spin this as asset inflation and some sort of spurious economic success story. Spew out […]

Yellen does virtuous – 5 years too late!

Confused? Well you should be be if you’ve been believing the usual output from the Federal Reserve. Contrary to the narrative of robust US economic growth and tightening labour markets requiring a normalisation of interest rates, things aren’t quite as rosy as Ms Yellen had been suggesting. Behind the increasingly absurd non-farm payroll data with […]

When you need to believe the ‘crazies’ are in control

Management by chaos . Did anyone seriously believe that Trump would be able to get his ambitious stimulus plan through Congress if the economy was chugging along nicely as Yellen was continuing to portray? It was almost as implausible as expecting the EU to offer a painless Brexit for the UK while they remain convinced we […]

Fed rate rise – Cui Bono?

After raising its Federal funds target range to 0.25-0.5% in December 2015, Yellen has waited exactly a year and now edged up rates a further +25bps as the target range is raised to 0.5-0.75%, while also signalling that these could rise to around 1.4% by the end of 2017, thereby suggesting three further +25bps increases […]

If rates rise, it won’t have anything to do with the US jobs data

It’s the first Friday of the month again and I’ve woken to Punxsutawney Phil and predictions of imminent interest rate increases following the traditional release of the US non-farm payroll numbers; this time for November. Notwithstanding these are probably even less meaningful than normal given the Presidential elections at the beginning of the month it […]

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