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Auto & jobs slowdown in August – another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates!
Another month of hints about imminent interest rate increases by Yellen and the Fed leak machine and we are probably no closer to an actual rate increase. At least in July we had another relatively firm private sector job creation and US auto sales to suggest that the super-low rate environment was well past its […]
Continue readingMilk prices go frothy, but at what margin implication for Danone
Are milk prices on the turn? Over the last month powdered milk prices are up another +10%, which means prices are over +30% up from their low point in May. For milk producers and consumers (such as Danone) alike the question is whether this represents an early indicator of a change in longer term price […]
Continue readingUS employment data for July – rate fears over-done (again)
Another month and another non-farm payroll number for markets to chew on. After what is now looking to be an abnormal data point for May, private sector employment growth has now posted a second month of gains at over 200k. Stretch this out over a year and we are still talking an average monthly increase […]
Continue readingIs it a surprise that most investors lose money when they are relying on a flawed metric?
Confused? Don’t worry, because you’re supposed to be. That way you can be sold a metric that has been anointed as the approved currency by which you are meant to determine the value of the goods or services being transacted. The fact that this currency may be flawed is fairly immaterial because it’s good for […]
Continue readingProcter & Gamble – Buying a defensive into a recession?
Leaving to one side the possibility that recessionary fears are being used as another ruse to monetise intractable deficits, the current round of recession fears have the “Buy defensives” brigade out in force. One such stock that has been attracting such attention is our old friend Procter & Gamble. Back in 2008, this was also […]
Continue readingSky – cutting the cord
What could possibly go wrong? Sky subscriptions are cyclically resilient because people go out less in recession and therefore spend more time at home where they value their telly subscriptions more. This was certainly true back in 2008 and before that for US cable in 2001. I should know, I was trotting out this argument […]
Continue readingPearson – facing more than just contra-cyclical challenges
Listening to Pearson explaining away a -7% fall in H1 organic revenues, one might have come away with the impression that the group is bravely responding to a perfect storm of cyclical forces largely beyond its control. We are reminded that College enrolments (and therefore demand for HiEd textbooks and learning materials), is contra-cyclical to […]
Continue readingTurkey vexillum falsa – Cui bono?
Normally the Turkish military are quite efficient with their coups. This one however, looked surprisingly lame, with what seems only a tiny turnout and a complete failure to seize control of the media or airports. This enabled Erdogan to fly into Istanbul within a few hours and broadcast a rallying call to supporters on TV. […]
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