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Asset allocation for 2023 – first pick your macro scenario
Go into a car salesroom or estate agent (realtor) and ask if it’s a good time to buy and I think we all know what the answer would be. Why then should we be surprised at a similar response from those pushing ‘stawks’ and bonds for a living? Here, the year-end prognostications for 2023 from […]
Continue readingEurope can’t take the pain, but ensuring more to come!
Amongst the plethora of distractions, many may have missed the truly seismic events over the last weeks of September. No, I don’t mean the rumblings under the Baltic and interdiction of Germany’s last hope for a warm winter, albeit this won’t help, but the answer to the big question that has overshadowed markets since central […]
Continue readingBond yields are rising, but more importantly normalising
Bond yields are rising, but perhaps more importantly, they are also normalising. Yields are rising, not because inflation rates are higher, but because of liquidity imbalances between borrowers and lenders. Where inflation fits into this process, is as a catalyst for returning the pricing of capital back to markets by removing the headroom of central […]
Continue readingThe power of one – WWG1WGA
No, I’m not referring to Qanon, but to the US Federal Reserve. Those central banks out there who thought they could get a free ride behind the Fed’s excessive monetary easing for a decade and a half, are now discovering that it came with a price, when the Fed started to pull back some of […]
Continue readingMarkets try to second guess the Fed, but perhaps all now irrelevant
That favourite pastime for markets has been to try and anticipate the Fed’s next move, which to be fair, has been the defining equity investment strategy for over a decade and a half. That however, presupposes that it remains in charge of events rather than now increasingly being at the mercy of them. So while […]
Continue readingHow many jobs added in July??
Perhaps Biden was correct and this is not a recession, as the US reports another increase in monthly private sector jobs in July. This time from June’s reported +404k net adds to almost half a million (+471k) in July, with annualised hourly wages meanwhile increasing by +5.6%. But hang on, if one strips out the […]
Continue readingPelosi’s stake in NVIDIA: Front running, or trying to close an eroding position?
Is anyone really that surprised that Nancy Pelosi’s husband (Paul) may have been front-running a $52bn CHIPS Plus bill that his wife was promoting a couple of days after the disclosure of his substantial investments in a potential beneficiary, NVIDIA? Unfortunately, such behaviour has become all too normalised in the US’s two-tiered judicial system. What […]
Continue readingPain at the pump? – blame the woke governments and not the oil majors!
In the UK, forecourt (pump) fuel prices are up +35% for both petrol and diesel (to 191p/199p respectively) from the last time the price of brent crude held above $120/bbl in Q1 2012. With the oil majors having all reported a strong increase in refining margins and downstream profitability, it must be tempting therefore suggest […]
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