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December US Jobs data again fiddled – all eyes on Fed asset purchases
This is getting repetitive! Once again, the BLS has reported a monthly US jobs estimate figure that has been artificially depressed by changing the seasonal adjustments. It is almost as if someone out there either doesn’t want the US to seem to return to normality, or is concerned that signs of a tightening job market […]
Continue reading“A huge miss” says CNBC for Nov US jobs. Not really!
“A huge miss” was how CNBC’s Rick Santelli framed the November US jobs report, which revealed a ‘mere’ +235k net new private sector jobs were estimated by the BLS to have been added in November. Perhaps if Mr Santelli was to add back in the -175k decline in the seasonal adjustment that the BLS included […]
Continue readingHobson’s Choice – Rising rates or a currency crisis
Just how much red pilling can a market take? How about the realisation that the economic recovery following the 2008 financial crash as been an illusion based on monetary easing that was conducted in a way to disguise the inflationary consequences, overstate economic growth while forcing investors up the risk curve, where they will be […]
Continue readingSeptember jobs report – no comfort here for more money printing!
Another government statistic and another opportunity it seems to spin it to support a corrupt narrative. This time, it is the monthly US jobs data for September, where the headline jobs growth of ‘only’ 194,000 is touted as evidence of weak economic activity and ergo an argument for postponing any discussion of tapering by the […]
Continue readingUS debt ceiling and the point of no return
What is the drifting gold price trying to tell us, because rising inflation and reckless government fiscal policies suggests impending currency debasement? Is this just another case of cognitive dissonance, that has accompanied COVID-19(84), or perhaps a temporary phenomena such as a big holder being forced to sell gold to raise USD to cover some […]
Continue readingFed flip-flops on tapering again – haven’t we been here before?
A solid monthly jobs report and the Fed rushes out some rumours that it may bring forward the supposed planned tapering. Yes, they’re that obvious! From the subsequent -6% drop in the gold price, it would seem a few precious metal traders were happy to take the bait, although the lack of follow through from […]
Continue readingThe insanity investment plan
Einstein’s definition of insanity is well known – “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” This however hasn’t discouraged some economists and central banks from arguing that all MMT (magic money theory) needs is just one more splurge of funny money to make it all come right. And as […]
Continue readingJune employment data – enough to keep the various bull(S) spin machines fed
June’s US non-farm payroll numbers probably contain enough straws for punters to continue to spin a positive prognosis for markets. A further rise in monthly private sector jobs of +662k, suggests the US recovery is building, but the modest increase in average earnings, given these are focused on the lower paid and more transitory jobs […]
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