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December US Jobs data again fiddled – all eyes on Fed asset purchases

This is getting repetitive! Once again, the BLS has reported a monthly US jobs estimate figure that has been artificially depressed by changing the seasonal adjustments. It is almost as if someone out there either doesn’t want the US to seem to return to normality, or is concerned that signs of a tightening job market […]

“A huge miss” says CNBC for Nov US jobs. Not really!

“A huge miss” was how CNBC’s Rick Santelli framed the November US jobs report, which revealed a ‘mere’ +235k net new private sector jobs were estimated by the BLS to have been added in November. Perhaps if Mr Santelli was to add back in the -175k decline in the seasonal adjustment that the BLS included […]

Hobson’s Choice – Rising rates or a currency crisis

Just how much red pilling can a market take? How about the realisation that the economic recovery following the 2008 financial crash as been an illusion based on monetary easing that was conducted in a way to disguise the inflationary consequences, overstate economic growth while forcing investors up the risk curve, where they will be […]

What if?

The progression of the Wuhan ‘lab leak’ hypothesis from conspiracy theory to mainstream consensus provides a salutary lesson not to accept an already implausible narrative because powerful vested interests would rather you did. So consider this and the potential ramifications. What if the S Spike protein is the pathogen responsible for platelets to clump and […]

Hear anything?

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated,” Chuck Prince (former Citi CEO) said in 2007. “But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” . [videopack id=”15651″]https://growthrater.com/gr_web_m1/wp-content/uploads/I-dont-hear-a-thing.mp4[/videopack] UK house prices are up another +10.9% according to the Nationwide and stock […]

Middleby gets stitched up like a kipper!

Nil premium mergers are tough to complete, particularly when a stretched balance sheet forces it to be funded with equity at a time when debt is cheap. This is due to the target company exposing itself as up for sale, but unable to offer its shareholders a control premium beyond some nebulous longer term shared […]

Lab-leak hypothesis – and the next shoe to drop?

Investing can sometimes feel like quantum physics, where there is no reality, but just a probability of outcomes. While valuing a potentially miss-priced asset on an existing consensus perception of reality is one challenge, this is a mere entree to the broader problem that the future is unlikely to pan out as per the current […]

The shape of things to come?

This QuickTake by Bloomberg video drive-thru of Wuhan paints an eeerily post-apocalyptic image that might be straight out of Twelve Monkeys or The Omega Man. My first reaction was to avoid any stock that needs to bring people together (restaurants, cinemas, airlines, event organisers, hotels etc) as the public reaction to this coronavirus is clearly […]

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