Why are markets perennial optimists? Perhaps it’s a reflection of the commercial bias favouring a positive investment recommendation by market participants to portray a glass as half full rather than half empty. Fold in expectations of a central bank put to bail out markets with endless liquidity fixes when things get sticky and it’s easy […]
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First they banned Alex Jones, and I did not speak out—because I had never heard of him. Then they banned Louis Farrakhan, and I did not speak out— because I’m not Snoop Dog. Then they banned the climate change ‘deniers’, and I did not speak out—because I was cold. Then they came for me—but I […]
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Better than expected Q1 GDP growth in both China and the US, may not be as positive for asset prices as the initial market reaction might suggest. Not only does it dispel some of the more ambitious hopes for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, but it also serves to encourage each side to dig in […]
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M&A in the Marketing Services sector is a bit like archeology; if you find yourself in a hole, keep digging! This is how companies such as Publicis, can propose to invest a further $4bn on another digital marketing acquisition, notwithstanding presiding over an eroding organic top line and sub market ROIC, notwithstanding splashing out over […]
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A return to ‘cheap money’ by the Fed and stabilising oil prices and it is perhaps not surprising to see a return to acquisition led growth strategies. For Chevron, its $50bn agreed offer for Anadarko looks to be broadly OpFCF neutral after $1bn of projected OpEx cost synergies from combining these two predominantly North American […]
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Weak net job growth, but high average hourly wage growth in February has been followed by an improved rate of net job growth in March, but a weaker pace of increase in average hourly wages. The earth-shattering conclusion from all this is perhaps not to extrapolate a single month’s data as it may just get […]
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“substantial monetary policy stimulus remains essential to ensure the continued build-up of domestic price pressures over the medium term.” So says Sig Draghi in yesterday’s release of the ECB’s 2018 annual report and so much for any doubt that the ending of the asset purchase programme (AAP) in December would actually herald a return to […]
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Markets are going with the ‘flow’, because that’s the only way to trade these algo-driven markets. The new Fed chairman flip-flops from hawk to dove while the ECB hint at following suit (ahead of its May parliamentary elections) and the Chinese unleash another Tsumani of credit. Equity valuations meanwhile recoup the Q4 lost ground, notwithstanding […]
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