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US jobs data for May – real trends now being allowed to show through

Is the BLS letting markets down gently that the US economy sucks and to kiss goodbye to a rate hike in June? Beyond the boost in February from renewed shale fracking and an exceptionally mild winter (on mining and construction job formation), US job growth into 2017 has been dire. I’m not referring to the […]

Now you’ve been distracted, here’s the real US monthly job growth numbers

Gosh, with so much excitement going on in the world between the bombs, missile strikes and false flags it was easy to miss last week’s US non-farm payroll release for March. Not that one would have missed much. Having delivered its much anticipated second rate increase in the current tightening cycle, the Fed no longer […]

POTUS missile attack on Syria – more Kabuki theatre than prelude to WW3

Markets attempt to discount the future, which for the present often means trying to anticipate what the new POTUS is up to. Unfortunately, when he is failing to deliver what he promised (Healthcare and tax reform), but doing what he explicitly said he wouldn’t (bombing Syria) one might be forgiven for wanting to move into […]

Goldman’s next 25 sigma event may be blamed on Skynet

Goldman have reportedly replaced 600 traders with 200 computer engineers since 2000. The ratio however, doesn’t look very efficient, so presumably they’re working on other projects such as AI, although once this is developed there may not be too much demand then for Javascript developers either. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603431/as-goldman-embraces-automation-even-the-masters-of-the-universe-are-threatened/ Hopefully, the programming and models will be […]

Fed rate rise – Cui Bono?

After raising its Federal funds target range to 0.25-0.5% in December 2015, Yellen has waited exactly a year and now edged up rates a further +25bps as the target range is raised to 0.5-0.75%, while also signalling that these could rise to around 1.4% by the end of 2017, thereby suggesting three further +25bps increases […]

US employment data for July – rate fears over-done (again)

Another month and another non-farm payroll number for markets to chew on. After what is now looking to be an abnormal data point for May, private sector employment growth has now posted a second month of gains at over 200k. Stretch this out over a year and we are still talking an average monthly increase […]

June US non-farm payrolls beat expectations! But did they?

Another month and another non-farm payroll number to interpret. Before you start to worry that the ‘better than expected’ MoM increase in private sector employment growth of +265k is going to accelerate the Fed’s interest rate tightening schedule, don’t. As usual, the numbers are open to interpretation as well as substantial revisions. The May […]

China’s crude oil import surge being refined and exported rather than implying rising domestic demand

If unplanned outages from Canada and Nigeria (of approx -2mb/d) have provided the supply side contraction behind the rebound in crude prices, China’s PBOC credit injection of $1tn in Q1 has helped to deliver the demand side component, which along with ECB and BoJ NIRP, have also helped keep the record levels of global inventories […]

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