recession Archives - GrowthRater

Tag Archives for " recession "

US employment data yet to support an early easing in monetary policy

We may be heading for a recession, but not one that is so far being flagged by current US employment or wage data. For those anticipating an early peaking of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, that therefore might come as a disappointment, as without a more pressing evidence of an already significant cooling […]

When governments panic

The -713k contraction in US private sector employment in March was as dire as expected, but after the approx +6.4m increase in initial unemployment claims already reported in the two weeks up to the 28th March, this represents merely an hors d’oeuvre to what is coming down the pipe, With only limited effective testing (including […]

Yield curve danger signals

A flattening yield curve is often taken as a bad omen for prospective GPD growth, so according to this theory, surely the increasing divergence in rates across the maturity range is good? Hmm, well actually no, as yields also diverged, while falling in the 2-3 quarters immediately preceding the last two recessions. Perhaps horse and […]

WPP – slowing growth progressively reflected in rating, but are markets now also anticipating a recession?

Following Friday’s results from WPP, there are 3 areas of interest to me as a potential investor, and ones where the GrowthRater model and sensitivity analysis can offer insight on; at least on the latter two. 1. The immediate forecast 2. The longer term growth outlook and therefore rating 3. The volatility or valuation risk […]

Sky – cutting the cord

What could possibly go wrong? Sky subscriptions are cyclically resilient because people go out less in recession and therefore spend more time at home where they value their telly subscriptions more. This was certainly true back in 2008 and before that for US cable in 2001. I should know, I was trotting out this argument […]

Looking beyond central bank interference in equity valuations

Behind the incessant background noise of Yellen’s ‘will she won’t she raise rates’ discussion, the closing of the Q1 results season provides a good opportunity to take stock of the broader earnings and more importantly OpFCF yield basis on which equities are priced. Relative to expectations at the start of the year, there have been […]

Preparing for a possible recession from end 2016

Economics is proving to be a little like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze it one place and the toothpaste is just displaced elsewhere. When the Fed adopted what was already a failing Japanese experiment in QE in 2008/09, it provided a much needed liquidity fix for the credit crisis, but a dangerous temptation that […]

Economists predict 2018 for the next recession – LOL

Well that’s okay, according to a recent survey by Bloomberg, most economists don’t think the next recession will be until 2018. As most of these are employed by banks with a vested interest to pump shares, this is most convenient, at least on two fronts. Firstly, the very low risk of an early recession is […]