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Brexit sitzkrieg
Over three months on from the Brexit vote and the World still turns and UK economic activity has been largely unaffected, with August retail sales up +6.2% YoY and September data showing UK consumer confidence index returning to pre-referendum levels (GfK) and UK manufacturing PMI (Markit) hitting 55.4, the highest level since May 2014. Lower […]
Continue readingUS state tax receipts fall by -2.2%; hardly a prelude for a Fed rate increase!
Sometimes the ‘facts’ are difficult to reconcile, particularly when these are government statistics. For Yellen this has included maintaining the fiction that all is well with the US economic recovery, but not so good that the Fed should take its foot off the monetary accelerator. Along with other market commentators we monitor the monthly data […]
Continue readingDMGT – added to GrowthRater model portfolio at 704p
DMGT – added to GrowthRater model portfolio at 704p The shares have been off my radar over the last couple of years after having broken above the top of my GrowthRating range (of +2.6-4.1% CAGR) and as organic revenue momentum dropped below this as the structural decay in print advertising continued, falling oil prices impacted […]
Continue readingDo central banks see a problem with Barrick?
There is something rather ironic about Central Banks using deflation as an excuse to print cash which is then used to buy gold shares, which are of course a leveraged play on rising gold prices which in turn are a reflection of the lack of confidence in central bank monetary policies. For the Swiss CB […]
Continue readingMarket crash? – depends who blinks first
Although the GrowthRater is a relative engine to establish stock valuation and risk relative to to broader market equity returns, that doesn’t mean we aren’t keenly aware of what these are, or might become, it is just that we do not impose our view on whether this is good or bad on the investment process. […]
Continue readingAuto & jobs slowdown in August – another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates!
Another month of hints about imminent interest rate increases by Yellen and the Fed leak machine and we are probably no closer to an actual rate increase. At least in July we had another relatively firm private sector job creation and US auto sales to suggest that the super-low rate environment was well past its […]
Continue readingMilk prices go frothy, but at what margin implication for Danone
Are milk prices on the turn? Over the last month powdered milk prices are up another +10%, which means prices are over +30% up from their low point in May. For milk producers and consumers (such as Danone) alike the question is whether this represents an early indicator of a change in longer term price […]
Continue readingUS employment data for July – rate fears over-done (again)
Another month and another non-farm payroll number for markets to chew on. After what is now looking to be an abnormal data point for May, private sector employment growth has now posted a second month of gains at over 200k. Stretch this out over a year and we are still talking an average monthly increase […]
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