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Falling used car prices and implications for residual values and margins
After a couple of bumper years, used car prices are now falling, with two further reports out this week suggesting a worsening rate of decline. For manufacturers of new cars & trucks, this presents a challenge to prospective profitability as the residual value assumptions that has been bolstering their financing operational profits may now flip […]
Continue readingUS employment data yet to support an early easing in monetary policy
We may be heading for a recession, but not one that is so far being flagged by current US employment or wage data. For those anticipating an early peaking of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, that therefore might come as a disappointment, as without a more pressing evidence of an already significant cooling […]
Continue readingAsset allocation for 2023 – first pick your macro scenario
Go into a car salesroom or estate agent (realtor) and ask if it’s a good time to buy and I think we all know what the answer would be. Why then should we be surprised at a similar response from those pushing ‘stawks’ and bonds for a living? Here, the year-end prognostications for 2023 from […]
Continue readingLife Insurance profitability ‘died suddenly’ from ’cause unknown’
Never in human history have governments spent so much and coerced so many in the name of health, yet achieved such adverse results. In year three of a virus with a lower mortality risk than for seasonal flu to all but the fat, old and already sick, not only are more people now dying, but […]
Continue readingAnother political distraction ahead of the Great Reset?
As political debate descends into the absurd, I am reminded that imitation is often regarded as the sincerest form of flattery; although the look adopted by Biden for his latest rant may have some uncomfortable antecedents. The late great Raul Julia seems to have aced the imagery in his last role as the deranged dictator […]
Continue readingThe power of one – WWG1WGA
No, I’m not referring to Qanon, but to the US Federal Reserve. Those central banks out there who thought they could get a free ride behind the Fed’s excessive monetary easing for a decade and a half, are now discovering that it came with a price, when the Fed started to pull back some of […]
Continue readingMarkets try to second guess the Fed, but perhaps all now irrelevant
That favourite pastime for markets has been to try and anticipate the Fed’s next move, which to be fair, has been the defining equity investment strategy for over a decade and a half. That however, presupposes that it remains in charge of events rather than now increasingly being at the mercy of them. So while […]
Continue readingWill the Euro replace the US dollar? – Unlikely!
It may not feel like it, but it’s over. What that means is that having failed to burn down the warehouse for the insurance, the business owners are now left in an even more precarious position of insurmountable liabilities, assuming of course there is no ‘unexpected’ collapse in life expectancy to bail them out from […]
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