Greed fed by fear and the Fed
It’s been a pretty good ‘pandemic’ for markets, although one doesn’t have to look too far to see what’s been feeding it. What next, the Fed variant?
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Goldilocks, or just cognitive dissonance?
So 9 years after Mario Draghi salvaged markets with his infamous “Whatever it takes” promise by the ECB, his current counterpart at the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell is attempting to repeat the trick, with his testimony to US House of Representative this Monday (21st June) where he promised “We at the Fed will do […]
Continue readingGold slumps – forming a ‘Macron bottom’?
So what’s up with the Gold price, which has tumbled by approx -5% in less than 48 hours? While 10 year US treasury yields are barely changed, a falling gold price on a rising US dollar suggests the Fed may be forced kicking and screaming back onto a monetary tightening tack and this also seems […]
Continue readingA Reserves based Valuation for Gold Miners
Resources companies can often present a quandary for traditional valuation techniques. Is a hole in the ground a potential asset, or the guys digging it worth an opportunity premium in case they find more gold? They are of course a bit of both, but the long lead times from sinking the capital to delivering the […]
Continue readingWhat if?
The progression of the Wuhan ‘lab leak’ hypothesis from conspiracy theory to mainstream consensus provides a salutary lesson not to accept an already implausible narrative because powerful vested interests would rather you did. So consider this and the potential ramifications. What if the S Spike protein is the pathogen responsible for platelets to clump and […]
Continue readingHear anything?
“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated,” Chuck Prince (former Citi CEO) said in 2007. “But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” . [videopack id=”15651″]https://growthrater.com/gr_web_m1/wp-content/uploads/I-dont-hear-a-thing.mp4[/videopack] UK house prices are up another +10.9% according to the Nationwide and stock […]
Continue readingMiddleby gets stitched up like a kipper!
Nil premium mergers are tough to complete, particularly when a stretched balance sheet forces it to be funded with equity at a time when debt is cheap. This is due to the target company exposing itself as up for sale, but unable to offer its shareholders a control premium beyond some nebulous longer term shared […]
Continue readingLab-leak hypothesis – and the next shoe to drop?
Investing can sometimes feel like quantum physics, where there is no reality, but just a probability of outcomes. While valuing a potentially miss-priced asset on an existing consensus perception of reality is one challenge, this is a mere entree to the broader problem that the future is unlikely to pan out as per the current […]
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