inflation Archives - GrowthRater

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Deja Vu – but have the lessons been learned?

“Follow the Fed” has been a winning investment strategy, but that ought to be confined to what the central bank is actually doing rather than the narrative that it is trying to communicate. Since early December, that narrative has been plainly on offer, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling a series of interest rate reductions […]

Will the Fed repeat the mistakes of the 1970’s by easing too early?

Natural gas and oil prices are off their peaks, so unsurprisingly so are reported rates of inflation. These in turn have been driving both bond and equity markets since the end of December in anticipation that central banks will ease off the monetary easing and thereby help avoid a potential recession this year. All this […]

Bond yields are rising, but more importantly normalising

Bond yields are rising, but perhaps more importantly, they are also normalising. Yields are rising, not because inflation rates are higher, but because of liquidity imbalances between borrowers and lenders. Where inflation fits into this process, is as a catalyst for returning the pricing of capital back to markets by removing the headroom of central […]

Is the US Fed bottling out already?

Jerome Powell seems eager to talk the talk on tackling inflation, but has yet to walk the walk. According to his 4 May published plan, the initial reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet should have kicked off at approx $47.5bn per month from 1 June, rising to $95bn per month by September. However, in the […]

The monster from the ID – inflation

The 1956 movie Forbidden Planet was at its core a tale of hubris; that technology can overcome nature, whether for Krell or human. The analogy for markets might be the conceit that the business cycle can be expunged without consequence and that one can borrow oneself out of debt. Like the ‘monster from the Id’ […]

Fog of war, or just fog?

Talk about fast markets. Blink and you might have missed WW3, as markets broadly return to where they were just 5 days ago. Good news however, may not be so positive for asset prices as waning emergencies mean fewer excuses by hard-up governments to keep printing their way out of deficits. And that means its […]

Hobson’s Choice – Rising rates or a currency crisis

Just how much red pilling can a market take? How about the realisation that the economic recovery following the 2008 financial crash as been an illusion based on monetary easing that was conducted in a way to disguise the inflationary consequences, overstate economic growth while forcing investors up the risk curve, where they will be […]

Gold slumps – forming a ‘Macron bottom’?

So what’s up with the Gold price, which has tumbled by approx -5% in less than 48 hours? While 10 year US treasury yields are barely changed, a falling gold price on a rising US dollar suggests the Fed may be forced kicking and screaming back onto a monetary tightening tack and this also seems […]

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