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Zero bond yields are not without a cost. Mind the Gap!
Interesting article yesterday on Bloomberg reporting that billionaire Stan Druckenmiller has dumped equities in favour of US treasuries, where he sees 10 year yields dropping to zero over the next 18 months. The two big assumptions however, is that Trump won’t get re-elected in 2020 and that US yields will converge down to those in […]
Continue readingYield curve danger signals
A flattening yield curve is often taken as a bad omen for prospective GPD growth, so according to this theory, surely the increasing divergence in rates across the maturity range is good? Hmm, well actually no, as yields also diverged, while falling in the 2-3 quarters immediately preceding the last two recessions. Perhaps horse and […]
Continue readingCoverage stock updates
Don’t forget, amongst the various features and valuation tools within the GrowthRater WebApp are regular commentary updates. Last month’s include the below:
Continue reading(Earnings) Klingons on the starboard bow
Why are markets perennial optimists? Perhaps it’s a reflection of the commercial bias favouring a positive investment recommendation by market participants to portray a glass as half full rather than half empty. Fold in expectations of a central bank put to bail out markets with endless liquidity fixes when things get sticky and it’s easy […]
Continue readingIf MARTIN NIEMÖLLER was on social media
First they banned Alex Jones, and I did not speak out—because I had never heard of him. Then they banned Louis Farrakhan, and I did not speak out— because I’m not Snoop Dog. Then they banned the climate change ‘deniers’, and I did not speak out—because I was cold. Then they came for me—but I […]
Continue readingQ1 GDP – too good?
Better than expected Q1 GDP growth in both China and the US, may not be as positive for asset prices as the initial market reaction might suggest. Not only does it dispel some of the more ambitious hopes for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, but it also serves to encourage each side to dig in […]
Continue readingM&A mantra: When in a hole, keep digging!
M&A in the Marketing Services sector is a bit like archeology; if you find yourself in a hole, keep digging! This is how companies such as Publicis, can propose to invest a further $4bn on another digital marketing acquisition, notwithstanding presiding over an eroding organic top line and sub market ROIC, notwithstanding splashing out over […]
Continue readingChevron offer for Anadarko – when cheap money meets rising oil prices
A return to ‘cheap money’ by the Fed and stabilising oil prices and it is perhaps not surprising to see a return to acquisition led growth strategies. For Chevron, its $50bn agreed offer for Anadarko looks to be broadly OpFCF neutral after $1bn of projected OpEx cost synergies from combining these two predominantly North American […]
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