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June US jobs data – surprisingly stable
Yes, its out; the US non-farm payrolls for June. In between love island, the World Cup footie and what counts as financial porn (endless tit-for tat negotiations on tariffs and Brexit) you might have missed these. For those fretting about interest rate rises on an overheating employment market, I shouldn’t worry too much that it […]
Continue readingWhining about US winning
So if Trump’s tariffs are going top hurt the US so much why is the US dollar going up by so much? If Trump’s tax reductions are going to increase the budget deficit, why are currency markets so unconcerned? It is because currency markets understand Trump is going to win. His tax cuts are […]
Continue readingGolden opportunity or just Cultural appropriation?
For Gold bugs, wouldn’t you rather invest in a miner, where its production currency had contracted by almost -20% relative to gold’s principal selling currency, the US dollar? Unfortunately, when the currency in question is falling due to political instability and government threats of confiscation without compensation of property based on race, then the answer […]
Continue readingGDP driven rate increases in the US threatens to pummel an already challenged ECB QE policy
Equity markets were widely reported to have bounced on Friday after the solid May private sector job growth, albeit the accompanying rise in average hourly wage growth presages another rate rise by the Fed. With EU’s grip on its southern flank unravelling as friendly regimes in Spain and Italy are replaced however, the prospects of […]
Continue readingOil shocker – producers claim to want lower prices!
Good grief, there’s a lot of tosh spouted on where oil prices are going after Russia and Saudi Arabia pulled the plug on the current rally, once Brent oil hit the magical $80/bbl target. The prize however, must go to Goldman’s straddle, where it seems the ‘technical’ analyst (someone who can draw straight lines) is […]
Continue readingGone by May?
As a student of history, Putin is probably well aware of Napoleon’s maxim of “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”. The US, France and UK may well feel empowered this morning after attacking Syria with around $200m worth of missiles, but what have they achieved? The Syrian military has not been […]
Continue readingSyrian Kabuki – follow the fleets, not the tweets
Have we given a lunatic the keys to the asylum? Donny ‘Two-Scoops’ recent Tweet on Syria might seem to suggest as much. Even if one were to ignore the playground language of a five year old, the contents were also deeply troubling on several levels. The first and foremost is that the Russians […]
Continue readingWeaning consumers off the debt fix – maybe
Well that seemed short-lived. Perhaps the bounce in US equity markets on the February non-farms was just a one day wonder. The numbers however, weren’t too shabby for equity prices; the combination of a better than expected net job growth (including upward revision in the January guesstimate), but with a lower pace of average wage […]
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